Mathematical approaches can be used to identify bookmakers’ weaknesses. Experienced sports bettors at 22Bet benefit from this and turn onto the winning track in the long term. Wettbasis has set itself the task of providing all readers with the basics to identify value bets using betting models and to view sporting events from a completely new perspective. When a new coach plays his first match at a club, the questions are not just: “Will he be able to reach the team? Can he create a new system of play?”
No, it is also important to try to establish an objective and logical thought structure for such facts in order to derive correlations. Questions that need to be asked are, for example: “Has the percentage of wins in the first games with a new coach actually been higher in the past? Does a new head coach actually have an impact on the outcome of games or is this just a misconception?”
The target error
Humans tend to tell stories after the fact and only recognize patterns once they have occurred. This is summarized under the term target error. Here is a brief example: In the second half of the 2015/16 season, Real Madrid won the Clasico at FC Barcelona and shortly afterwards faced VfL Wolfsburg in the Champions League. After the game (final score: 2:0 for Wolfsburg), every supposed expert had an explanation for this surprising result.
Real’s players were still thinking about the Clasico and had underestimated their opponents after their success at the weekend. A few minutes outnumbered meant that the Madrilenians were no longer physically fit and so on. But if you watched the game, you also know that Real could or even should have taken a 1-0 lead. An alleged offside goal was disallowed due to a millimeter decision by the referees.
If it had counted and the Whites had taken the lead in Wolfsburg, perhaps they would have won the match 3-0 and all the pundits would again have been of the opinion that Real had boosted their confidence by beating Barca and that Wolfsburg were out of their depth anyway due to the “Kruse affair” at the time.
Another brief example is Bayern’s match against Mainz 05, also from the spring of 2016. Mainz won 2:1 in the Allianz Arena in a completely overwhelming manner and there was a huge outcry after the game. Due to the upcoming top match against BVB on the following Saturday, the players were accused of lacking concentration, having the wrong attitude and much more.
A closer look is more profitable: both in terms of first impressions and purely statistical figures, Munich’s home game was almost identical to the previous matches at the Allianz Arena. Possession of the ball, shots on goal, running performance – none of these figures deviated significantly from the previous weeks. The only difference was that the ball simply wouldn’t find its way into the opposition’s goal in this encounter and Mainz took advantage of both opportunities as they arose and took home the three-pointer.
It was simply a statistical phenomenon that Bayern failed to win one of their many home games against small opponents.